Geoff Jenkins thread
I'm currently having and interesting discussion on an interesting topic at Baseball Musings
- Geoff Jenkins' new contract with the Brewers (3/yr, $8.5M/yr). Basically, I am arguing that Jenkins is being way overpaid. Here is my first post in the comments section:
$8.5M is a good contract if he can stay healthy. If he only plays the 100 games per season that he's been averaging over the past 3 seasons (and never played more than 135 games in a season), then it's way too much. I agree that he's a good but not great player. But I'd rather have Reggie Sanders for $2M (the way he's played the past 3 seasons - averaging 130+ games/season over the past 3 years) than Geoff Jenkins and his $8.5M and 100 games/season.
And Charlie points out that he's already 29 years old and on his way into decline. Here is my next point:
I guess the big question (or at least another question) is: how much do you think Jenkins would get on the free agent market? We all know the market is slumping for players. Does anyone REALLY think that Jenkins would get a 3 year deal worth $8.5/year? I find that very hard to believe. I think the Brewers overvalue him because he's the teams only decent player, but I think that's all he really is - a decent player. Definately not worth that kind of money. I'll take Mondesi at $1.75M or Sanders at $2M or Jose Cruz for whatever he ended up getting. Yeah, these guys are a bit older, but look how much money you'd save, and you're only getting a very marginally worse player by saving $6M+.
Seriously, how much COULD he have signed for if he was a free agent this offseason? I don't think he would have been able to sign for nearly as much. Tangotiger points out that his UZR makes him one of the best fielders in the league, but he plays left field, one of the least difficult (imortant?) positions on the diamond. I investigated Jenkins' Rate2 stat:
Jenkins' Rate2 stats for the past 3 years have been 108,110,100 - pretty darn good. Reggie Sanders' have been 105,107,103 - not quite as good, but pretty darn close, and more consistent, too. I'll still take Sanders at $2M this season compared to $8.5M for Jenkins.
(Mondesi's Rate2 were 108, 90/101, 93/101 - he split his teams in 2002 & 2003, hence the split Rate2 above.)
I think this is just another bad move on the Brewers' part. I wasn't crazy about the trade of Sexson - they didn't really get any really promising players - but I understand they probably did as well as they could. I'm thinking this signing of Jenkins is a bit like the Tigers overpaying for free agents. Jenkins wasn't a free agent yet, but since Milwaukee isn't a desirable place for players to play, perhaps they had to overpay to sign their own player.
posted by shawn
: 3/03/2004 02:21:00 PM -