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The Greatest Game

Friday, January 09, 2004

Tigers get Carlos Guillen, M's get Aurilia 

The Tigers made a good move yesterday, trading a spare part and an A-baller for Carlos Guillen. I have to admit, I kinda like Guillen, and I don't see why the M's were so looking forward to getting rid of him. He's 28 years old all next season, and his numbers have increased the past 3 seasons: OPS of .689, .719, .753 from 2001-2003. Plus he can play 3rd or SS. He was out for a good portion of the year with an inflamed pelvis, so that probably needs a little looking out for. One of the impressive things about Guillen was his 52 BB in 388 AB last year. Mind-blowing? No, definately not, but it seems like he's learning to take a walk, and since he's not a big-bopper, learning to talk a walk is all that more important for him. He played half his games in one of the worst hitter's ballparks, but he's moving to Detroit, which isn't exactly known for it's home runs, either (I can't find the park effect numbers, but I'll post them in a bit when I do find them). Oh yeah, Guillen is a switch hitter, too, and better against righthanders, which is always nice since there are so many more of them around.

Hmmmm, I just checked out the Park Factors on Baseball-Reference.com and it seems that last year, Detroit (95/95 for batting/pitching) had a worse Park Factor than Seattle (97/98 for batting/pitching). Very interesting. Both parks opened up in 2000, and over the past 4 years, Safeco Field has been, on average, worse (93/95 vs. 96/96).

Back to Guillen and Aurilia. My problem with the essential trade of Guillen for Aurilia/Santiago is that Aurilia, while he had a great season in 2001, he's been a bit below average for 2002 and 2003, making 2001 look like a big fluke. Not only did he put up .718 OPS in 2002 and a .735 OPS in 2003, but his home/road splits show that he was WAY better at home, which is probably going to translate in some horrible numbers at SafeCo Field. Here are his splits for last year:

BAOBPSLGOPS
Home.315.350.450.800
Away.240.301.370.671
Total.277.325.410.735


That REALLY doesn't look good for Aurilia in 2004.

And one more thing, according to David Pinto's Probabilistic Range for Shortstops, Guillen was a MUCH better shortstop last year than Aurilia. Guillen rated a 0.00241 PR, while Aurilia came in below average at -0.00490.

The more and more I look at this deal for the M's, the worse it gets. Bavasi is underwhelming me to the extreme this offseason.
# posted by shawn : 1/09/2004 12:06:00 PM -
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